By Michael Adams
Austin Sports Journal
Texas State returns to UFCU Stadium Tuesday night in a game that may very well define its season.
The Bobcats (3-4, 0-3 Sun Belt) have dropped three straight and sit winless in conference play, but the record does not tell the full story.
Texas State’s last three losses have come by a combined 11 points, including back-to-back overtime losses to Troy and Marshall. All three games were decided by a handful of plays in the final minutes. In reality, Texas State is just a few possessions away from being 6-1 and in the thick of the Sun Belt race.
Instead, the Bobcats enter Tuesday needing to stop the slide to save their season, and they’ll have to do it against the league’s most consistent team.
James Madison (6-1, 4-0 Sun Belt) arrives with the Sun Belt’s top scoring defense (15.6 points allowed per game) and the No. 1 rushing defense (74.3 yards allowed per game), anchoring a unit that also leads the league in total defense at just 237 yards allowed per game.
The Dukes’ identity is clear: control the line of scrimmage, shorten the game with a powerful run attack, and force opponents to play left-handed.
That could spell doom for a troubled Texas State defense that has faltered against strong running games this season.
On top of that, the Dukes may be getting one of their most dynamic playmakers back full time – running back George Pettaway, who saw limited action against Old Dominion last week, which was his first game back in weeks.
Meanwhile, Texas State continues to light up the scoreboard.
The Bobcats lead the Sun Belt in scoring at 36.1 points per game and rank among the nation’s leaders in explosive plays, including the most plays of 50 or more yards in the country.
Quarterback Brad Jackson has emerged as one of the league’s most productive passers, throwing for 444 yards last week at Marshall while connecting with WR Beau Sparks, who ranks top-10 nationally in receiving production. RB Lincoln Pare continues to anchor the ground game with nine rushing touchdowns and key short-yardage power.
But while the offense has been elite, the defense has struggled, allowing 31.3 points per game and giving up late scoring drives in each of the three losses. If Texas State is going to win Tuesday, the defensive effort must be noticeably better, especially on early downs and in the red zone.
The Bobcats will also need sharper game management. In last week’s double-overtime loss at Marshall, Texas State twice passed on short field goals in the red zone and came away with no points — decisions that proved decisive when the game extended into overtime. Tuesday’s margin will likely be just as thin.
Players to watch
Texas State
QB Brad Jackson: The offensive engine. Decision-making in tight coverage windows will shape the game.
WR Beau Sparks: The deep threat who can flip field position and momentum instantly. He was recently named to the Biletnikoff Award watch list.
RB Lincoln Pare: Must keep the Bobcats on schedule to prevent obvious passing downs.
James Madison
RB George Pettaway: Pettaway can turn a crease into a 40-yard gain and forces defenses to defend every gap with urgency.
QB Alonza Barnett III: Barnett’s legs are a matchup problem. When plays break down, he turns chaos into 1st-and-10.
LB Trent Hendrick / DL Immanuel Bush: The enforcers at the center of the nation’s No. 2 rush defense.
Keys to victory
Texas State
The defense must step up: Timely stops, especially in the fourth quarter, will determine the outcome.
Balance explosive plays with sustained drives: JMU rarely gives up deep breakdowns, so execution will matter.
Take the points: Field goals are points. Points matter. No empty red-zone possessions.
James Madison
Establish the run: Keeps the clock moving and Texas State’s offense off the field.
Limit explosive passes: Force Texas State to drive methodically.
Control the line of scrimmage: This is JMU’s identity and path to winning.
Prediction
Texas State will move the ball, but James Madison’s defensive consistency and situational discipline have been the deciding factors in close games this season. James Madison 42, Texas State 30
Game info
Texas State (3-4, 0-3) vs. James Madison (6-1, 4-0)
When: 7 p.m., Tuesday
Where: UFCU Stadium, San Marcos
TV/radio: ESPN2, KTSW 89.9 FM
Betting line: James Madison -6.5
