Class 4A girls basketball playoff outlook: Hot teams, clinching scenarios and looming first-round matchups

By Michael Adams
Austin Sports Journal

Smithville’s Sydnie Brenner (12) reaches to attempt to steal the ball from Kylie Trlicek (10) of La Grange during a District 22-4A high school girls basketball game on Friday, Jan. 9, 2025 at Smithville High School in Smithville, Texas. (Michael Adams/Austin Sports Journal)

There are four regular-season games remaining in the 2025–26 Texas high school girls basketball season.

Playoff races are entering the home stretch across the Austin–San Antonio metroplex, and every game now carries increased weight for playoff positioning and division placement.

The Austin Sports Journal continues its breakdown of the South Central Texas girls basketball playoff picture by turning its attention to Class 4A, where several of the area’s most complete teams reside.

La Grange (24-8, 6-0 District 22-4A) and Salado (22-7, 5-0 District 24-4A) have emerged as two of the top teams in Region III. If current district standings hold, the two programs would be on a collision course for a Class 4A Division II regional semifinal matchup in the third round of the playoffs.

The bi-district pairing between District 25-4A and District 26-4A could also produce some intriguing first-round matchups. Manor New Tech (25-3, 8-1 District 25-4A), Lago Vista (13-9, 8-1 District 25-4A), Fredericksburg (20-8, 5-0 District 26-4A) and Davenport (19-9, 5-1 District 26-4A) are among the top 4A teams in the area, but their postseason paths will be shaped by how the races behind them unfold.

Here’s a look at where things stand in the area’s four Class 4A districts, including teams closest to clinching and how the Division I and Division II brackets could take shape if current standings hold.

Read more

District 22-4A

La Grange’s Ashtyn Smith (12) takes a three-point shot during a District 22-4A high school girls basketball game on Friday, Jan. 9, 2025 at Smithville High School in Smithville, Texas. (Michael Adams/Austin Sports Journal)

La Grange has separated itself from the rest of the district, opening 22-4A play with a perfect 6-0 record. The Leopards carry a seven-game winning streak into the final two weeks and have been dominant during that stretch, winning those games by an average of 33.5 points.

Navasota remains firmly entrenched in second place at 5-1 and is safely inside the playoff picture.

Smithville sits at 3-3 and currently occupies third place, holding a one-game edge over Giddings (2-4) and Bellville (2-4), who are tied for the final playoff spot. While not mathematically eliminated, Caldwell (0-6) faces an uphill battle with limited opportunities remaining.

Outlook: La Grange can clinch a playoff berth Friday with a win at Bellville, a team it defeated by 59 points earlier this season. Navasota would also clinch Friday with a win over Caldwell and a Giddings loss to Smithville. The Rattlers need two more wins to secure a spot outright.

If the standings hold, Navasota and either Bellville or Giddings would represent District 22-4A in Division I, while La Grange and Smithville would compete in Division II.

District 24-4A

Salado’s Riley Guthrie (25) puts up a layup during a Class 4A Division II area playoff game at Thrall High School on Friday, Feb. 14, 2025 in Thrall, Texas. (Michael Adams/Austin Sports Journal)

Salado is in full control of District 24-4A and needs just two wins to punch its ticket to the postseason. Marble Falls sits in second place at 4-1 and remains in the district title conversation but will need to upset the Eagles in Salado on Feb. 3 to close the gap.

Lampasas (3-2) and Jarrell (2-3) are battling for the final two playoff spots, while Taylor (1-4) and Burnet (0-5) are still mathematically alive. However, the Ducks and Bulldogs are running out of room for error with four games remaining.

Outlook: As the smallest school in the six-team district, Salado is assured a Division II placement. Marble Falls, the district’s largest school, will compete in Division I. Lampasas controls its postseason fate and would join Marble Falls in Division I if it qualifies. Whoever emerges from the race for fourth place would join Salado in Division II. If Lampasas stumbles and misses the playoffs, Taylor will become the other Division I representative.

District 25-4A

Records across District 25-4A remain incomplete on MaxPreps, but the top tier of the standings is clear. Manor New Tech and Lago Vista both sit at 8-1 and appear headed for a two-team race for the district championship, but Legacy Ranch (7-2) is only a game behind and upset Lago Vista last week.

The Titans close the season with a challenging stretch, including a road trip to Legacy Ranch before finishing at home against Lago Vista. The Wranglers remain very much in the title picture after splitting their regular-season series with the Vikings and could shake up the standings with a home win over Manor New Tech.

The battle for the fourth playoff spot remains unsettled, with LBJ and Eastside hovering near the cut line as the season enters its final weeks.

Outlook: Manor New Tech, Lago Vista and Legacy Ranch are all but locked into postseason berths, but the order of finish will matter. Manor New Tech and Legacy Ranch would compete in Division II, while Lago Vista and the district’s other playoff qualifier would be placed in Division I. While divisional placement within 25-4A is largely set, teams are closely monitoring how District 26-4A unfolds, given the first-round bi-district matchup.

District 26-4A

At 5-0, Fredericksburg has already clinched a playoff berth. With an enrollment of 1,047, the Battlin’ Billies sit directly on the Division I–II bubble. How the third and fourth playoff spots play out will determine if Legacy Ranch/Manor New Tech or LBJ/Eastside will play a Fredericksburg team that has won 12 straight games in the first round.

Davenport holds a strong grip on second place and can clinch a berth with a win Friday at Wimberley. The Texans sit in third place at 3-3 but hold just a one-game cushion over Bandera and New Braunfels Long Creek.

Long Creek picked up an important win Tuesday over Wimberley but faces a daunting closing stretch: Fredericksburg at home Friday, a road game at Davenport on Tuesday, then finishing with Canyon Lake and at Bandera. The Dragons will likely need an upset or help elsewhere to stay alive. A potential winner-take-all game looms Feb. 10 at Bandera, a matchup that could carry implications for both 26-4A and 25-4A.

Outlook: Fredericksburg and Davenport are locks for the postseason, but Fredericksburg’s divisional placement will be determined by which teams claim the final two playoff spots. Bandera and Long Creek hold the cards. If Long Creek, the district’s second-largest school, qualifies, Fredericksburg drops into Division II and would draw either LBJ or Eastside in the first round. If Bandera and Wimberley advance, the Battlin’ Billies would remain in Division I and face either Manor New Tech or Legacy Ranch.