By Michael Adams
Austin Sports Journal
Texas should be well represented in the NCAA volleyball tournament, set to begin Dec. 4-6.
With 31 automatic bids already locked in, the race for the remaining 33 at-large spots in the field of 64 will be decided Sunday during the NCAA Selection Show, airing at 5 p.m. on ESPN.
At the top of the bracket, Nebraska has emerged as the clear front-runner for the No. 1 overall seed, riding an undefeated résumé and the nation’s top RPI. Kentucky sits firmly in line for the No. 2 overall seed, while the next tier of national powers, including Texas and Arizona State, continues to shuffle behind them.
Texas is firmly in the national No. 3 conversation, and once again the Lone Star State will be one of the deepest represented states in the tournament. SMU, Texas A&M, TCU, Baylor, Rice and UTEP are all tracking safely inside the projected field, while Stephen F. Austin is already locked in as the Southland Conference’s automatic qualifier.
The real drama for Texas fans lives on the bubble, where Texas State currently sits as the first team out in the latest Texas Volleyball Journal projection.
Who’s in?
Here’s a look at where each Texas school stands with Selection Sunday approaching:
Texas (RPI 2, SEC): The Longhorns are a lock for a top four-seed and will almost certainly anchor one of the four regions as a No. 3 overall seed. Texas has paired an elite SEC résumé with a top-two RPI and remains a national title contender entering tournament play with momentum and depth at every position.
SMU (RPI 7, ACC): The Mustangs have surged into top-eight seed territory. SMU’s’ 24-5 record, strong non-conference performance and ability to stack quality wins have positioned them to host through at least the opening weekend and potentially into regional play.
Texas A&M (RPI 10, SEC): The Aggies are firmly planted on the No. 2–3 seed line, which will allow the to host, at the very least, the first two rounds. Backed by a battle-tested SEC schedule and a consistent body of work against top-50 opponents. The Aggies could be one of the most dangerous teams in the second weekend of the tournament.
UTEP (RPI 17, CUSA): Despite Western Kentucky securing Conference USA’s automatic bid, UTEP’s resumé is far too strong to be denied. At 25-4 with multiple quality wins, the Miners are shaping up as a 4–6 seed and a potential regional disruptor for a higher seed.
Rice (RPI 22, American): Tulsa’s automatic berth pushed Rice into the at-large pool, but the Owls remain safely in the field. Their top-25 RPI, balanced schedule and strong late-season push position Rice comfortably in the middle of the bracket.
TCU (RPI 20, Big 12): The Horned Frogs’ Big 12 slate has been unforgiving, but the numbers continue to favor them. With a top-20 RPI and multiple high-end wins, TCU projects as a 6–8 seed with the ability to make real noise in the second round.
Baylor (RPI 27, Big 12): Baylor’s early-season growing pains are now well behind them. The Bears’ top-30 RPI and late-season consistency have pushed them out of bubble territory and into a safe 7–9 seed range.
Stephen F. Austin (RPI 64, Southland): The Ladyjacks are locked into the field as the conference’s automatic qualifier. At 23-7, SFA profiles as a dangerous double-digit seed capable of springing an upset on the opening weekend.
On the bubble
Texas State (RPI 44, Sun Belt) currently sits just outside the projected field as the first team out, narrowly missing the final at-large cut line. The Bobcats’ profile is strong enough to stay in the national discussion, but the crowded at-large picture and limited number of available spots leave Texas State in a tense waiting game heading into Selection Sunday.
See our projected field of 64 here.
