By Michael Adams
Austin Sports Journal
Texas State and Arkansas State renew their Sun Belt rivalry Saturday afternoon at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas.
The Bobcats enter 3-1, rested after a bye week, while the Red Wolves (1-4, 0-1 Sun Belt) look to regroup after a difficult non-conference slate. Texas State has won four of the last five in the series.
Key players to watch
For Texas State, all eyes are on quarterback Brad Jackson, who has completed 67 percent of his passes for 864 yards and six touchdowns with just one interception through four games. His chemistry with receiver Beau Sparks (370 yards, five touchdowns) gives the Bobcats one of the Sun Belt’s top passing duos.
Running back Lincoln Pare adds balance with 363 rushing yards and three scores, while all-purpose threat Jaylen Jenkins provides explosive depth. Defensively, linebacker Treylin Payne (29 tackles) and edge rusher Kalil Alexander (4.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks) lead a unit that allows just 25 points per game.
Arkansas State relies heavily on quarterback Jaylen Raynor, a veteran starter with more than 1,200 passing yards and six touchdowns already this season. He spreads the ball to receivers Chauncy Cobb (367 yards), Corey Rucker (232 yards, one TD), and Hunter Summers (215 yards, one TD).
On the ground, running backs Devin Spencer and Kenyon Clay combine for over 350 rushing yards. Defensively, linebacker Brandon Greil and safety Nigel Nelson anchor a group that has struggled statistically but has forced eight turnovers.
Keys to victory
Texas State: Establishing balance will be key. If Jackson can stay efficient while Pare and Jenkins move the chains, the Bobcats can exploit an Arkansas State defense giving up 465 yards per game. Defensively, Texas State must keep Raynor in check, limiting his scrambling and forcing turnovers.
Arkansas State: The Red Wolves need to protect Raynor and give him time to find his playmakers. A-State averages just 112 rushing yards per game, so improvement on the ground is necessary to keep the Bobcats’ defense honest. Defensively, slowing Sparks and forcing Jackson into mistakes will be critical.
Bobcats coming off bye week
Texas State enters fresh after a bye week that came at a perfect time. The Bobcats opened with four physical contests, including a road win at UTSA and a road loss at Arizona State. The extra rest should benefit Jackson and Pare, both of whom carried heavy loads in September.
Kinne’s name in coaching rumors
Head coach GJ Kinne has been mentioned in national circles as a rising candidate for Power Five jobs, with his name loosely tied to openings across the country. While Kinne has downplayed speculation, his success in San Marcos — including last season’s bowl appearance and a 19-11 mark at Texas State — has raised his profile. Managing outside noise will be key as Sun Belt play begins.
Sun Belt outlook
This weekend also marks the start of Sun Belt Conference play for Texas State. The Bobcats are chasing programs like Troy, James Madison, and Louisiana, who have consistently been at the top of the league. With a challenging slate ahead, including games against Troy, JMU, and Marshall, a road win in Jonesboro is vital to stay in the mix.
Brad Jackson settling in at QB
After winning the job in fall camp, Brad Jackson has settled in as Texas State’s leader under center. His poise and efficiency have brought stability to an offense that averaged 36 points per game in September. With Sparks emerging as a top target and Pare balancing the attack, Jackson’s continued development could determine how high the Bobcats climb this fall.
Prediction
Texas State’s balance on offense and improved defense makes them the more complete team. Arkansas State’s home-field advantage helps, but the Bobcats’ offensive weapons should control the temp.
Prediction: Texas State 34, Arkansas State 24.
Game info
Texas State (3-1, 0-0) at Arkansas State (1-4, 0-1)
When: 3 p.m., Saturday
Where: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, Ark.
TV/radio: ESPN+, KTSW 89.9 FM
Series: Arkansas State leads 7-5
