Classification and division changes from other areas will have a geographical ripple effect for area schools

By Michael Adams
madams@onthesidelinessports.com

It’s realignment week!

The University Interscholastic League will reveal it’s long-awaited classification realignments on Thursday morning for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 school years.

On the Sidelines Sports wraps up its preview series with the final installment, looking at football realignment for Class 5A and below.

Unlike Class 6A where football teams are placed in Division I and Division II after playoff spots are determined, Class 5A and below divisions are predetermined at the biannual redistricting.

Here are links to past preview stories:

UIL realignment preview

Jan. 9: Class 6A (all sports)

Jan. 16: Class 5A (all sports except football)

Jan. 23: Class 4A – below (all sports except football)

Jan. 30: Class 5A and below football districts

There is no crystal ball to foresee the future, so no one really knows for sure what the UIL is going to do until Feb. 1.

However, On the Sidelines Sports has thoroughly evaluated the classification cutoff numbers and enrollments from snapshot day, and here’s what we came up with.

The changes

There’s a lot of changes that are going to significantly impact how football districts are determined for Austin area schools.

Starting in Class 5A, three schools in the Greater Austin metro area will move up to Division I from Division II – Cedar Creek, Rouse and Lockhart. Weiss will also move down from Class 6A.

New Braunfels also moves down from Class 6A, while New Braunfels Canyon moves up to Class 6A. That, along with San Antonio Pieper moving from Division II to Division I will have some impact for Austin area 5A teams. Also, look for Waco schools dropping to Division II in both Class 5A and 4A to have an impact on Austin area districts.

Meanwhile, Austin ISD schools Eastside, LBJ, Northeast and Travis will move from Class 5A-Division II down to Class 4A-Division I. Austin Achieve and Manor New Tech will also shift from Division II to Division I in Class 4A.

The final big move will be Thrall, which moves up to Class 3A-Division II from Class 2A-Division I. Thrall has a geographical disadvantage and will likely have some travel to look forward to.

With those changes in mind, here’s what we think might happen starting in Class 5A:

District 8-5A-Division I (Region II)

Why we think this will happen: Georgetown and East View will be victims of the Killeen schools moving in different directions. For example, Killeen and Killeen Shoemaker are moving up to Class 6A. Meanwhile, Killeen Chaparral moves up to Division I and Ellison drips to Division II. However, expect Killeen ISD opt to move Ellison to Division I. Throw in Lake Belton and current district foes A&M Consolidated and College Station, it makes for the perfect 7-team district.

District 11-5A-Division I (Region III)

Why we think this will happen: It’s very possible that this district is paired with the new Georgetown-Killeen-College Station district in a bi-district. However, it’s unlikely due to what happens south of Austin. Look for the four Leander ISD schools to be paired with Hendrickson and Weiss with Anderson and Cedar Creek thrown in there. Cedar Creek might be the wild card and go with Lockhart, Hays and Lehman in District 12-5A-Division I.

District 12-5A-Division I (Region III)

Why we think this will happen: The two big changes to consider is the addition of Comal Pieper and Lockhart. Hays and Lehman have played in a district with Boerne Champion, Comal Smithson Valley and Comal Canyon for the past two years. The logical choices here are to add Pieper and Lockhart and swap New Braunfels for Canyon. Again, the wild card is that Cedar Creek could be added here to make an eight-team district.

District II-5A-Division II (Region III)

Why we think this will happen: Liberty Hill isn’t going to like this, but there’s likely going to be a separation from the Austin area for football. With Waco dropping down from Division I, the ripple effect from the Austin ISD schools movement and Rouse moving up to Division I, Liberty Hill really has no place to go. Expect them to go north to Waco and be paired with Waco High, Waco University and Belton, and pull Brenham and Bryan Rudder from the east to form a six-team district.  

District 12-5A-Division II (Region III)

Why we think this will happen: With four schools dripping to Class 3A-Division I and no indication that AISD will opt them up to Class 4A, that leaves a hole in the current makeup of the Austin ISD football district. It’s easy to fill though, as Bastrop, Elgin, Pflugerville and Connally are a perfect geographical fit.

District 13-4A-Division I (Region IV)

Why we think this will happen: This district prediction is almost a lock. There aren’t any other 4A Division I schools in the area and with Austin Achieve and Manor New Tech moving up from Division II and LBJ, Eastside, Northeast and Travis dropping from 5A-Division II, this district comes together nicely with Taylor.

District 12-4A-Division II (Region III)

Why we think this will happen: The big shakeup here is Lago Vista moving away from the Wimberley district and going north with Jarrell. The reason for this is the changes in the Waco area, which will have China Spring and Waco La Vega dropping from Division I. Look for Lago Vista and Jarrell to join up with Waco Connally, La Vega, Waco Robinson, China Spring and Salado.

District 13-4A-Division II (Region IV)

Why we think this will happen: Smithville, Giddings, Caldwell and La Grange will most likely be paired together, and wisdom indicates they will go south and likely be paired with Wimberley and Geronimo Navarro. Gonzales and Cuero could also join to form an eight-team district, but that seems unlikely as six-team districts are more common in the lower classifications. However, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Smithville, Giddings, Caldwell and La Grange move east with Sealy, Bellville and Wharton as they have in the past.

District 13-3A-Division II (Region IV)

Why we think this will happen: If you look at a map of Texas and pinpoint all the 3A-Division II schools, Thrall is like most schools in Class 3A in that there’s not a lot of other teams around them. Rogers and Lexington are nearby so they will be paired with them. Elkhart and Buffalo are outliners in East Texas, but currently in the district with Clifton, Rogers and Lexington. That said, Highway 79 does go through Buffalo and into Palestine, which is 10 miles north of Elkhart. Thrall to Elkhart is a 138-mile trip (2 hours, 21 minutes). I hope Tiger fans enjoy road trips.

District 12-2A-Division I (Region III)

Why we think this will happen: With Thrall moving to Class 3A, this district will likely get a makeover and move away from Weimar and Schulenburg and go east. Holland and Hearne will stay and will be joined by Cayuga, Jewett Leon and Centerville, sticking with the Highway 79 theme. That trip to Cayuga from Thorndale is 141 miles. Cayuga is a wild card, but there will need to be a sixth team added. If it’s not Cayuga, expect it to be Marlin.

District 13-2A-Division II (Region IV)

Why we think this will happen: Bartlett, Granger and Milano will likely be paired together. With McDade High School fielding an 11-man football team, that makes four teams geographically fit for this district. The question is how to fill it out. Expect the district to pull from the east and pick up Grapeland, which is dropping down from 2A-Division I, and Iola.

Be sure to join me on Instagram Live at noon, Wednesday as I talk about some of these crazy predictions and preview UIL realignment in the Austin area.