By Michael Adams
Austin Sports Journal
And then there were four.
The Austin area has four high school football teams playing in this weekend’s UIL state semifinals with a shot at reaching the UIL football championships next week at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
Lake Travis (14-0) will face Galena Park North Shore (12-2) in a Class 6A Division I semifinal. The winner will advance to face the winner of Allen vs. Duncanville.
Last year’s Class 6A Division II state champion, Vandegrift (12-2), will take on C.E. King (12-2) with a potential rematch against Southlake Carroll looming in the championship game.
Smithson Valley (13-1), last year’s Class 5A Division I state champion, faces unbeaten Port Arthur Memorial (14-0) in one semifinal. The winner will meet either Aledo or Frisco Lone Star in the finals.
Finally, Llano (13-1) faces Yoakum (12-2) on Friday at The Pfield in a Class 3A Division I semifinal. The winner will advance to face either Pester or Grandview.
The Austin Sports Journal takes a look at each of the four semifinals featuring local teams and assigns a likelihood of advancing on a 50%–100% scale. Every game begins as a true 50–50 at kickoff, and we adjust from there based on matchups, recent play and overall trends.
Lake Travis (14-0) vs. Galena Park North Shore (12-2)
Time & Location: 3 p.m., Saturday at Thorne Stadium, Houston
The road to the semifinals
North Shore: defeated Deer Park 49-14; d. Ridge Point 31-7; d. Cypress Falls 54-27; d. Dickinson 46-29.
Lake Travis: defeated Round Rock 41-147; d. San Antonio Brennan 13-7; d. Laredo United 41-7; d. San Antonio Johnson 27-19.
Our take
North Shore’s two losses this season came against Dallas South Oak Cliff (41-31) and Humble Summer Creek (27-0). The Mustangs feature a balanced offense led by quarterback Kaleb Maryland, who has thrown for 3,209 yards and 34 touchdowns. His favorite target is Jaylan Becard, who has 1,155 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns.
Look for North Shore to lean on its passing game against Lake Travis’ stout defensive front, led by senior defensive end Carter Buck, rather than relying heavily on 1,000-yard rusher Hezekiah Johnson.
The Cavaliers’ offense is not flashy, but it is efficient. If Luke McBride can capitalize on scoring drives and keep the Mustangs’ offense off the field, this has the potential to be a close game. Time of possession will be the key on Saturday.
Lake Travis’ chances to get to Arlington: 35%.
North Shore’s offense will test the Cavaliers’ defense more than they’ve been challenged all season. It’s a winnable game for Lake Travis, but it will need to play near-perfect defense to pull the upset.
Vandegrift (12-2) vs. Sheldon King (12-2)
Time & Location: 6 p.m., Saturday at McLane Stadium, Waco
The road to the semifinals
C.E. King: defeated Cypress Clear Falls 56-7; d. Pearland Shadow Creek 51-6; d. Katy Jordan 52-0; d. Humble Summer Creek 24-21.
Vandegrift: defeated Westlake 16-14; d. San Antonio Brandies 27-7; d. San Marcos 24-7; d. Dripping Springs 27-20.
Our take
C.E. King’s upset of Humble Summer Creek in last week’s regional final was unexpected by most outside of Houston. The Panthers are an explosive offense averaging 50 points per game behind one of the state’s best running backs, Dionne Sims.
The 5-foot-11, 170-pound Sims averages nine yards per carry and has rushed for 1,669 yards with 24 touchdowns. Quarterback Tim Potts has thrown for 2,415 yards and 32 touchdowns while protecting the football with just two interceptions all season.
The Panthers will test a Vandegrift defense allowing only 14.4 points per game. This will likely be the Vipers’ toughest offensive challenge of the season. C.E. King scores fast and early, averaging 35.3 first-half points. Vandegrift cannot afford to fall behind and get into a chase.
Vandegrift’s chances to get to Arlington: 40%.
The Vipers are the defending champions, but they have not faced an offense as explosive as C.E. King’s this season. Still, Drew Sanders and his staff have a strong postseason track record, making an upset very much in play.
Smithson Valley (13-1) vs. Port Arthur Memorial (14-0)
Time & Location: 7 p.m., Friday at Legacy Stadium, Katy
The road to the semifinals
Port Arthur Memorial: defeated Galena Park 42-0; d. A&M Consolidated 44-27; d. College Station 42-24; d. Barbers Hill 48-35.
Smithson Valley: defeated San Antonio Southside 49-0; d. Corpus Christi Veterans Memorial 34-0; d. San Antonio Pieper 30-14; d. New Braunfels 24-0.
Our take
Port Arthur Memorial enters this matchup as one of the most complete teams left in the field, riding a perfect 14-0 record behind the dynamic play of Amante Martin. The senior is the engine of the Titans’ offense, averaging 164 rushing yards per game while also throwing for 108 yards per contest. His ability to extend plays and create offense in multiple ways makes Port Arthur Memorial difficult to defend for four quarters.
Smithson Valley counters with one of the state’s most efficient skill groups led by Ty Knutson and Hunter Haug. Knutson averages 133.7 passing yards per game and has been accurate and explosive in the Rangers’ spread attack, while Haug is a big-play threat on the perimeter at 84 receiving yards per game. Smithson Valley has allowed just 129 points all season and has been especially strong in the secondary.
The key battle will come down to Port Arthur Memorial’s physical rushing attack against a Smithson Valley defense that has not faced many run-heavy teams this season. If the Titans establish the ground game early, it could wear on the Rangers late. Smithson Valley cannot afford to fall behind and be forced into a one-dimensional game plan.
Smithson Valley’s chances to get to Arlington: 45%.
Port Arthur Memorial gets the slight edge because of its offensive balance. Amante Martin’s dual-threat production creates matchup problems the Rangers haven’t consistently had to solve this season. While Smithson Valley’s defense has been elite all year, its fourth-quarter scoring dip is a concern against a team like Memorial.
Llano (13-1) vs. Yoakum (12-2)
Time & Location: 7 p.m., Friday at The Pfield, Pflugerville
The road to the semifinals
Yoakum: defeated McGregor 66-22; d. Fairfield 36-29; d. Hardin 28-10; d. Columbus 20-14.
Llano: defeated Poteet 49-14; d. Corpus Christi London 53-12; d. Goliad 31-7; d. Edna 38-35.
Our take
Llano enters this semifinal playing its most complete football of the season, powered by a balanced offense that can punish defenses on the ground or stretch the field through the air. Quarterback Luke Davis has been efficient and explosive, averaging 192 passing yards per game, while the Yellowjackets’ offense as a whole is averaging more than 450 total yards per contest. Llano has also been fast out of the gate, scoring more than 28 points per game in the first half, which puts heavy pressure on opponents to keep pace.
Yoakum leans heavily on its ground game behind Germarquis Robinson, who averages nearly 139 rushing yards per game and is the clear focal point of the Bulldogs’ offense. When Yoakum is able to control tempo and stay in manageable down-and-distance situations, it can be very effective. The concern comes when the Bulldogs are forced out of that comfort zone. Yoakum averages just 17.8 passing yards per game and has not consistently shown the ability to rally through the air if it falls behind early.
Defensively, Llano’s speed and physicality should stress Yoakum’s one-dimensional attack. If Llano can contain Robinson and force Yoakum into obvious passing situations, the matchup tilts heavily in the Yellowjackets’ favor.
Llano’s chances to get to Arlington: 65%.
Llano earns the edge in this matchup because of its ability to control the game in multiple ways, especially early. The Yellowjackets average more than 28 points per game in the first half and nearly 457 total yards overall, which puts immediate pressure on opponents to keep up. Yoakum’s offense is built almost entirely around Germarquis Robinson and the ground game, and if Llano is able to contain him and force the Bulldogs into passing situations, the matchup becomes difficult for Yoakum to sustain drives and trade scores.
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