By Michael Adams
madams@onthesidelinessports.com

The biannual University Interscholastic League redistricting is set to take place in less than a month. The UIL will release new district alignments on Feb. 1 for athletics in the 2024-2026 school years.

On the Sidelines Sports continues its weekly series leading up to realignment day by looking at the Class 5A landscape.

The below predictions are for all sports except football. Unlike Class 6A where Division I and Division II are decided after playoff spots are determined, Class 5A and below divisions are predetermined at the biannual redistricting. We will examine that separately.

UIL realignment preview

Jan. 9: Class 6A (all sports)

Jan. 16: Class 5A

Jan. 23: Class 4A – below

Jan. 30: Class 5A and below football districts

There is no crystal ball to foresee the future, so no one really knows for sure what the UIL is going to do until Feb. 1.

However, On the Sidelines Sports has thoroughly evaluated the classification cutoff numbers and enrollments from snapshot day, and here’s what we came up with.

There are 22 Class 5A schools in the Greater Austin Metro Area. That’s down from 24 during the last redistricting in 2022.

The changes

Weiss and Anderson both drop to Class 5A from 6A. The other changes that are likely to impact Class 5A redistricting in the Austin area is that Austin ISD schools Eastside, LBJ, Northeast, Travis and all-girls school Ann Richards turned in Class 4A numbers.

In the past Austin ISD has elected schools that fall under the 5A cutoff to play up to keep all the district’s schools in the same district. However, there’s been no indication that will take place for this redistricting.

That being said, we considered one important factor when making our projections: The UIL rarely breaks up schools in the same ISD.

That means the following schools will be paired together:

• Georgetown ISD (Georgetown, East View)
• Bastrop ISD (Bastrop, Cedar Creek)
• Austin ISD (McCallum, Anderson, Austin LASA, Navarro, Crockett)
• Pflugerville ISD (Weiss, Connally, Pflugerville, Hendrickson)
• Hays Consolidated ISD (Hays, Lehman)
• Leander ISD (Rouse, Leander, Cedar Park, Glenn)

There are only three ISDs in the Austin area with one 5A school – Liberty Hill, Lockhart and Elgin.

The trick is putting the puzzle together.

The wild cards

Georgetown and East View are the wild cards this redistricting go around. With Killeen and Killeen Shoemaker moving up to Class 6A, that leaves a hole in the current Waco district makeup.

The current district includes Killeen, Killeen Shoemaker, Killeen Chaparral, Killeen Ellison, Lake Belton, Belton, Waco and Waco University. Some of those schools are already being mixed with Austin area schools in football.

The rest is kind of a crap shoot and could go a number of ways.

Liberty Hill could go north with Georgetown and East View, but that seems unlikely since that would make a 9-team district. However, there’s going to be a 9-team Austin area district it just depends on which one.

How the Austin area is split

Not many expect Austin ISD to elect LBJ, Travis, Eastside, Ann Richards or Northeast up to Class 5A. Should Georgetown ISD go north to Killeen/Waco, that leaves 20 schools to break up into two Austin area districts with a few left over.

The question is how.

One scenario puts Liberty Hill, the four Leander schools in a nine-team district with the Pflugerville schools in a north/south Austin split. The other district would include Bastrop, Cedar Creek, Elgin and the five Austin ISD schools, leaving Hays, Lehman and Lokhart to shift south toward San Antonio. This seems the most likely scenario.

The other scenario would stick with the east/west Austin split scenario like we think will happen in Class 6A. That would put the Pflugerville schools in a district with Bastrop, Elgin, Cedar Creek and the Leander schools and Liberty Hill in a district with the Austin ISD schools in a 9-team district.

Regardless of how it splits, we believe that Lockhart, Hays and Lehman will shift south toward San Antonio. Here are the On the Sidelines Sports projections for Class 6A districts involving the 22 schools in the Austin area. Remember, this is for all sports except football.

5A District (Region III)  

Current: Killeen, Killeen Shoemaker, Killeen Chaparral, Killeen Ellison, Lake Belton, Belton, Waco and Waco University

On the move: Killeen and Killeen Shoemaker (5A to 6A)

Why we think this will happen: This feels like the safest bet of them all. This district (22-5A) in its current form will need two teams. to replace Killeen and Shoemaker. There aren’t other 5A teams that geographically fit in this district other than Bryan-Rudder and the College Station schools (A&M Consolidated and College Station).

5A District (Region III)  

Current: Georgetown, East View, Bastrop, Elgin, Cedar Creek, Connally, Hendrickson, Pflugerville

On the move: None

Why we think this will happen: We expect this district to move into Region IIIa nd be a bi-district matchup with the Georgetown/Belton/Waco/Killeen district. It’s a geographically fit for a bi-district playoff in Region III. However, we might be reaching a bit. This district could easily match up with the Austin/Bastrop County one in Region IV. There will certainly be surprises and this would be one of them.

5A District (Region IV)

Current: Eastside, Travis, Crockett, Northside, Navarro, Austin LASA, LBJ, McCallum, Ann Richards (girls sports only)

On the move: Anderson (6A to 5A), Eastside, Travis, Northside, LBJ, and Ann Richards (5A to 4A)

Why we think this will happen: With the changes up north, this seems like a logical choice. However, you can’t use logic when predicting UIL realignment. That being said, there’s really no other option should the other two districts turn out the way we expect. Elgin and Bastrop have been in the Austin ISD districts in the past and who else is going to fill out this district? One thing is certain. Should this disrict turn out this way, it would be very competitive.

5A District (Region IV)

Current: Boerne Champion, Comal Canyon, Comal Pieper, Comal Smithson Valley, Kerrville Tivy, San Antonio Veterans Memorial, San Antonio Wagner, Seguin

On the move: New Braunfels (6A to 5A), New Braunfels Canyon (5A to 6A), Boerne (4A to 5A)

Why we think this will happen: There’s a few ways this can go, but this one seems most likely. With Borne moving up from 4A to 5A and Canyon and New Braunfels swapping places, the Boerne schools are a geographical fit with the two Comal ISD schools and New Braunfels. Since there’s no place for Lockhart, Lehman and Hays in the Austin districts, I think they go here, and Seguin and the two Judson ISD schools (Veterans Memorial and Wagner) will find a new home. Yet, it is quite possible Seguin and the two Judson schools take the place of the two Boerne schools and Tivy.